Assessing COVID-19's impact on travel decision-making in South Africa

Historical crisis events have significantly influenced the global tourism industry and affected countries' GDP. Notable examples include the 9/11 attacks in the United States, the Foot and Mouth outbreak in the United Kingdom, the SARS outbreak, the South Asian tsunami in 2004, and bombings in Thailand in 2015. These events resulted in notable declines in tourist arrivals and significant financial losses, with the SARS outbreak leading to the most substantial global decrease in tourist numbers before COVID-19.

Until 2019, tourism was a significant contributor to global economic growth, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to a dramatic 73% reduction in international tourist arrivals, severely impacting jobs and economies, especially in developing countries like South Africa. South Africa's tourism sector, previously experiencing growth, encountered major disruptions, including a significant decline in employment and foreign arrivals.

In response, the South African government and industry stakeholders implemented strategic plans and recovery initiatives to rejuvenate the sector. These measures have led to a substantial recovery in tourist arrivals, demonstrating the sector's resilience and the importance of effective crisis management strategies.

The pandemic has underscored the importance of considering health and safety in tourists' decision-making processes and highlighted the need for further research into how risks and crisis events influence travel decisions. Understanding the factors that affect tourists' decisions — including attitudes, interests, and experiences — is vital for tourism organisations to adapt and attract visitors during and after crises.

The study applied a quantitative method in the form of a survey, and a self-administered questionnaire was distributed as part of an online survey to determine how unforeseen crisis events influence tourists' travel decisions. Due to the impracticality of traditional, in-person data collection amid COVID-19, the methodology shifted to an online format to prioritise safety while ensuring quality and timeliness of data collection.

The study conducted a domestic survey targeting South African tourists. Similar to previous COVID-19 studies, the methodology involved convenience sampling through iFeedback, a research company with a pre-recruited panel of South African consumers. Participants voluntarily engaged in the process.

The measuring instrument was developed from the literature and covered socio-demographic variables, travel behaviour and motivations, and risk perceptions with Likert-scale and open-ended questions. South African domestic tourists were surveyed via iFeedback from January 2023 to April 2023. A sample size of n=335 was collected, adhering to sampling recommendations. The study underwent ethical clearance and used a tailored questionnaire reviewed by the relevant Research Scientific Committee and Ethics Committee.

Descriptive analysis, exploratory factor analysis, and Spearman correlation matrix were used for the analytical process. The primary goal was to identify and examine the key factors in travel decision-making that significantly impact the choices made by potential or current travellers.

In South Africa, most respondents were female (58.5%), aged over 55 (37.3%), and married (45.4%). The largest group had a high school certificate/diploma (28.4%) and worked in the private sector (26.6%). A significant portion reported an average monthly income (29.9%). Most South African travellers preferred journeying with friends (35.2%) and rated their overall health as good (48.1%).

South African respondents rated their health positively, aligning with the idea that good health may encourage travel but could also lead to increased caution. Contrary to other COVID-19-era studies, participants preferred travelling with friends rather than family or partners, suggesting a prioritisation of personal travel experiences and a need for safety measures catering to group dynamics.

Exploratory Factor Analysis delineated 'bleisure activities' (events, business, entertainment, culture, adventure, leisure) and 'recreational activities' (nature, culinary, museum) as key categories of post-pandemic activity participation, reflecting a shift towards outdoor or nature-related activities due to health and safety concerns.

Future travel concerns were categorised into 'external destination concerns' (political stability, natural disasters, crime, health risks, service availability, sanitation, destination location, and social factors) and 'internal destination concerns' (time, financial considerations, destination image, attractions, food and beverages, and infrastructure), indicating heightened awareness of health and safety.

The influence of media on travel decisions emerged in two factors: 'travel decisions' (amenities, documentation, food and beverage, accommodation, transportation, and infrastructure) and 'attraction decisions' (choice of attractions and activities), highlighting media's significant impact on travel-related preferences.

Three travel motivation factors were identified: explorative motivations, relaxation motivations, and personal motivations, reflecting a diverse range of travel drivers. Key factors influencing travel decisions included external and personal factors (health status, disease risk, crisis management, medical facilities, age, product availability, government crisis management, leisure time, travelling with children, and queues) and financial factors (rising accommodation and transport costs).

Two COVID-19-specific factors influencing travel decisions were 'COVID-19 interventions and statistics' (sanitation, non-compliance consequences, social distancing, insurance costs, death rates, visitor limits, mask-wearing, and infection rates) and 'COVID-19 destination entrance protocols' (isolation requirements and negative test or vaccine certificates).

Spearman rank correlation coefficients were employed to assess relationships between factors, especially with non-normally distributed data. The results indicated positive correlations across all main group factors, with significant correlations (p < 0.05) observed.

• Medium correlation: tourists tend to engage in multiple activities and hold various travel motivations
• Large correlation: rising destination concerns link to increased personal well-being concerns
• Medium correlation: escalation in crisis-event factors associates with increases in interventions and statistics

The shift towards outdoor activities suggests that destinations should enhance such offerings post-pandemic, catering to health and safety concerns. Heightened awareness of external and internal travel concerns calls for destination managers to address these aspects comprehensively to reassure travellers.

The significant influence of media on travel decisions highlights the need for effective communication strategies in tourism marketing, mainly focusing on accommodation and attractions. Varied travel motivations suggest that tourism offerings should be diversified to cater to explorative, relaxation, and personal needs.

Financial considerations and personal factors like health and safety are critical in travel planning. This calls for tourism providers to develop pricing and safety strategies sensitive to these concerns. COVID-19-specific findings indicate a need for destinations to balance stringent safety measures with practical travel requirements.

While informed by the South African context, the following recommendations are also relevant to other developing countries' tourism industries.

• Collaboration and diversification among tourism stakeholders after crisis
• Media and marketing strategies that understand channel influence on decisions
• Continuous research into crisis management and media framing of crises
• Comprehensive risk information and a centralised trusted online platform

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on travel decision-making in South Africa and discovered that a wide array of factors influence these decisions. The empirical data provided important insights, forming a foundation for comprehending traveller behaviour in crisis situations.

These insights are invaluable for tourism suppliers and stakeholders, as they offer a means to foresee and effectively tackle the challenges posed by unexpected crises. While crisis events pose challenges, they also create opportunities for positive developments and innovations in the tourism sector, emphasising the need for effective crisis communication strategies.

The research highlights the significance of collaboration, diversification, and resilience following a crisis. Providing comprehensive risk information on official tourism websites is crucial for ensuring safety and enhancing the sector's resilience. The establishment of a centralised online hub for trustworthy information is also imperative.

The survey faced limitations: it was confined to a single market due to resource limitations, suggesting the need for future research encompassing multiple markets. Additionally, COVID-19 restrictions necessitated online questionnaires over traditional in-person methods in South Africa.

Future research should focus on identifying effective crisis management practices and refining destination and activity plans based on relevant literature. Data analytics is essential for understanding visitor behaviour and spending. Keeping abreast of how media influences traveller choices and investigating the media's role in framing crisis narratives is also advised, alongside ongoing research during crises to inform decision-making across diverse markets.